This is supposed to be the week the deal is announced. Not the BFS but a deal. This is supposedly why there's no BFS. Seriously, can you tell yourself a convincing story to explain the missing BFS? Here's the company telling up back in September 25, "weeks not months" and that it's the most important document in the company's last 5 years. It's a historical moment. And then thud! nothing....
So after reporting the things I hear like claims that it's this week or that I have to come full circle to my own thinking. And that it that this week is the last opportunity to give us the data or we cruise off into next year empty handed. Teck does go on holidays. If the BFS comes tomorrow and no later then Teck can give it a fair review. If you want any hope of an opinion from them it has to come out now.
Elmer made a good case for a deal before the year ends based on Teck having full disclosure. He figured 30 days would do it but hey Elmer, what about releasing it? You're screwing us by pushing this into the American fiscal cliff. So February is looking a lot more like it. Unfortunately, an lot of people from the general crowd are telling me they are not going to make it and will be forced to take horrible losses. As in ruined.
Is this the price you pay for taking a guys word who's spent his entir life in the business? In a single word. Yup. This is why our Junior market has such a terrible reputation. And believe it or not there will be people who defend this crap. When the share price plunges and people get wiped out they will say "you knew what you were getting into". Well, you should have. Yes, if you can wait 3 years longer than they said it would take you'll make money. How much is another question. As each day does by the value of the deal goes down.
Some people will be bound to ask why that is. Well, commodities are falling according to our chief money man and he expects them to continue to fall. Great, the CAPEX will fall too but I bet it lags copper. Then there's our negotiating position with Teck. Teck is ramping up other projects because they are farther out. They don't want to spend billions on us right now and may be a whole lot less inclined to do anything this year or next in Canada. I bet they want to make an area play here but they will want to see the world turning the corner before they commit.
Look at the dead money issue. We know that our government is going to take action next year if those companies try to sit on their hordes beyond next year. Teck will see this the same way. To them it means another year before they really need to do anything. That gives them a strong position. If the document comes out now Teck will take the full 120 days. That pushes us into the end of March.
I've had enough talks with Elmer to know for sure he doesn't want to see this. I'd like to be as optimistic about the 30 day review followed by a buy out but that hope is fading. I know he's working on a deal with Teck right now but at what price? There comes a point where he can't accept the low offer that is surely being pitched. If they can't reach a mutually acceptable price we have to go pound dirt. Elmer is a Teck insider by way of his position on Liard and the shares CUU will control. That's not the best place to be if you are a friend of Lindsay.
If no deal is announced tomorrow it will be time for people to unwind their positions. I can understand taking what you absolutely have to off the table at a loss in the hopes of getting something but you may find it even more painful if you wait. I know I'm going to continue selling on account of this. What's 10 or 20k missed compared to 3-10k lost for 100% certain? Oh, it's just on paper they say. Um ya sure, until you need to pay bills or feed your family. Then it becomes real.
Tomorrow when no deal comes there will be another round of selling. Nothing big but enough that people begin to notice the trend. As they consider what the last week of this month holds and look forward to December I think they will conclude that things are going to get a whole lot worse. Next week you'll hear about how the cliff just got a whole lot closer. Don't expect any surprises there.
I think people should email and call the company and let them know just how they feel about the remainder of this year.