Wednesday, November 21, 2012

The Week the Earth Stood Still

This is supposed to be the week the deal is announced. Not the BFS but a deal. This is supposedly why there's no BFS. Seriously, can you tell yourself a convincing story to explain the missing BFS? Here's the company telling up back in September 25, "weeks not months" and that it's the most important document in the company's last 5 years. It's a historical moment. And then thud! nothing....

So after reporting the things I hear like claims that it's this week or that I have to come full circle to my own thinking. And that it that this week is the last opportunity to give us the data or we cruise off into next year empty handed. Teck does go on holidays. If the BFS comes tomorrow and no later then Teck can give it a fair review. If you want any hope of an opinion from them it has to come out now.

Elmer made a good case for a deal before the year ends based on Teck having full disclosure. He figured 30 days would do it but hey Elmer, what about releasing it? You're screwing us by pushing this into the American fiscal cliff. So February is looking a lot more like it. Unfortunately, an lot of people from the general crowd are telling me they are not going to make it and will be forced to take horrible losses. As in ruined.

Is this the price you pay for taking a guys word who's spent his entir life in the business? In a single word. Yup. This is why our Junior market has such a terrible reputation. And believe it or not there will be people who defend this crap. When the share price plunges and people get wiped out they will say "you knew what you were getting into". Well, you should have. Yes, if you can wait 3 years longer than they said it would take you'll make money. How much is another question. As each day does by the value of the deal goes down.

Some people will be bound to ask why that is. Well, commodities are falling according to our chief money man and he expects them to continue to fall. Great, the CAPEX will fall too but I bet it lags copper. Then there's our negotiating position with Teck. Teck is ramping up other projects because they are farther out. They don't want to spend billions on us right now and may be a whole lot less inclined to do anything this year or next in Canada. I bet they want to make an area play here but they will want to see the world turning the corner before they commit.

Look at the dead money issue. We know that our government is going to take action next year if those companies try to sit on their hordes beyond next year. Teck will see this the same way. To them it means another year before they really need to do anything. That gives them a strong position. If the document comes out now Teck will take the full 120 days. That pushes us into the end of March.

I've had enough talks with Elmer to know for sure he doesn't want to see this. I'd like to be as optimistic about the 30 day review followed by a buy out but that hope is fading. I know he's working on a deal with Teck right now but at what price? There comes a point where he can't accept the low offer that is surely being pitched. If they can't reach a mutually acceptable price we have to go pound dirt. Elmer is a Teck insider by way of his position on Liard and the shares CUU will control. That's not the best place to be if you are a friend of Lindsay.

If no deal is announced tomorrow it will be time for people to unwind their positions. I can understand taking what you absolutely have to off the table at a loss in the hopes of getting something but you may find it even more painful if you wait. I know I'm going to continue selling on account of this. What's 10 or 20k missed compared to 3-10k lost for 100% certain? Oh, it's just on paper they say. Um ya sure, until you need to pay bills or feed your family. Then it becomes real.

Tomorrow when no deal comes there will be another round of selling. Nothing big but enough that people begin to notice the trend. As they consider what the last week of this month holds and look forward to December I think they will conclude that things are going to get a whole lot worse. Next week you'll hear about how the cliff just got a whole lot closer. Don't expect any surprises there.

I think people should email and call the company and let them know just how they feel about the remainder of this year.

32 comments:

  1. The lack of information from the company, after the various missed deadlines, shows a lack of respect by the company for the average shareholder IMO. On the other hand, perhaps Elmer is working on something and he's thinking that when it's done, the shareholders will forgive and forget on the way to the bank. Third possibility, this is turning out to be a way bigger job then Elmer had allowed for. Time will tell...lots of time apparently.

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  2. Trader 18 months:
    I've been getting the same from others but no one is backing it up. It's altered mt views somewhat but I don't have anything myself to back it up. My own thoughts run contrary. Yes, the silence might equal delays for the specified reasons. I just can't find anything concrete.

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  3. It's one missed deadline after another with this company and I'm tired of it. If the BFS does not come out this week, I'm selling my entire position at the ask.

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  4. People with real insights: You know how to get a hold of me.

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  5. It's clear that credibility with CUU Management is down the tubes as far as a lot of investors are concerned. Otherwise, investors would of taken their "we're weeks away not months away" comments seriously and loaded up on shares, and you'd be seeing a massive buying rally now instead of a steady selloff. As others have pointed out, month after month and year after year of failed deadlines has destroyed investor faith in this company.

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  6. The information in this blog is very well presented. I've been long on Copper Fox for about a year, but my hopes are quickly fading. My spider senses are tingling so to speak, and like a few of my co-workers who are invested in this stock, we are getting a strong gut feeling it may be time to bail out of this one.

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  7. Based on conversations with him (the content of which I can PROVE), and allegedly what he has told others, ES is walking a very, very thin line here if something is amiss. Like, razor thin.

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  8. ive followd your posts on agoracom webgogs and what i like about you is that you are not a smoke and mirrors kind of poster. what you post is based on factual information. your comments may not always be positive news for investors but your comments are honest and therefore credibl and i can respect that cause i can get the entire picture of whats happening with my investment. keep up the good work webgogs

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  9. OK, my position is all sold out :0 Time to move on...

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    Replies
    1. Stay in touch. Let us know if you've found something good.

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    2. A friend of the family who is an Investment Advisor has recently told us he doesn't like what's been going on with this company and has advised us to reduce our position considerably. My Wife and I will wait until end of next week. If no news by then, we are out of this disappointing stock and will redeploy our capital elsewhere. Somewhere where Management actually communicates with their shareholders and actually follows through with deadlines.

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  10. Nice blog. I agree that something is broken with this stock. With Management... News should be coming soon. Hopefully it's good news otherwise this guy is taking the tax loss and moving on. I've had enough of this.

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  11. First web I compliment you for this blog and comments on the bullboards.While at times IO disagree with your comments you hit nail on head past couple weeks.We have 100k shares CUU between my family and two friends.Gone by friday if no news to explain what is going on.Thanks for keeping it real.

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  12. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 6 times (the number of times CUU has changed the timeframe for completion of the BFS over the past 36 months), Shame on me!

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    1. Correction, that should read 10 times, not 6, the number of times CUU has changed their timeframe for completion of the BFS over the past 36 months.

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  13. talk about timing.... web talks about investors getting fed up and selling and thats exactly what happened today. havent seen stock close this low in a long time. something definitely fishy here. this stock should be on a rally now not selling off.

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  14. the number of shorts certainly shot up recently. not a good sign, imho.

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  15. webgogs, i've been lighting up ever since 1.10....120k so far, 18k today from 1.02 down to 1.00. Still have 280k and will probably sell down to 200k.... was way to over exposed at one time believing the FS would be out a month ago...can't take the risk (even if very small) that there could be a problem. Any anouncement of a further delay will send the stock into the 80's instantly imo...and if I'm wrong, well I still have lots of shares to benefit from a buy-out....
    looks like you'll miss out on that 10k donation to your horse farm :)
    Wolfe

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  16. June 01, 2010
    Copper Fox on Track to Complete the Feasibility Study at Schaft Creek by End of 2010.

    Dec 14, 2010
    A Feasibility Study on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine is expected to be completed in early 2011.

    Feb 15, 2011
    A Feasibility Study on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine is expected to be completed? by the end of June 2011.

    June 29, 2011
    The feasibility study is being led by Wardrop, A Tetra Tech Company on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine and is expected to be completed during the fourth quarter 2011.

    Dec 12, 2011
    The feasibility study is being led by Tetra Tech WEI Inc. on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine and is expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2012.

    March 19, 2012
    The feasibility study is being led by Tetra Tech Wardrop on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine and is expected to be completed by mid-summer of 2012.

    May 24, 2012
    The feasibility study is being led by Tetra Tech Wardrop on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine and is expected to be completed mid-late summer, 2012.

    Aug 2, 2012
    The feasibility study is being led by Tetra Tech Wardrop on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine and is expected to be completed? by late summer, 2012.

    Sept 4, 2012
    The results of the feasibility study for the Schaft Creek? project are expected to be delivered in September 2012.

    Sept 25, 2012
    The feasibility study is being led by Tetra Tech Wardrop on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine.

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    2. Holy Crap! When you list it like that, it really hits home as to how incredibly bad this company has been with keeping to it's own timetable.

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  17. Hello Foxyroller,
    have you changed your optimistic outlook as to the release of the BFS? Your post above makes me think you have, or that you are at least feeling the same angst as the rest of us. For me, it is the (non)events of this week that have me feeling uneasy for the very first time since I have held this company. Does anyone know anything new?

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  18. We have to be fair. One delay was to update the RE and that proved very valuable pounds wise. Then came the pit redesign to accommodate the new pounds of high grade. Then came the screw up. After that it was obvious a redo was required. And here we are today in a perpetual waiting cycle.

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    1. I have a feeling that we will be well into the new year and still awaiting word on the BFS results.

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  19. It looks like SH crap has started to infect the comment section. Webgogs, please do some filtering. Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. This is the filtered stuff. What you're seeing is a whole lotta really peeved people.

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  20. todays buying doesn't jive with the sentiment you guys are promoting. if you are serious about being a part of an extremely undervalued company then owning shares is the only way to capitalize. that window is closing and could slam shut at any time.

    timelines aside, the value is in this property. as for delays, i believe there is a good reason that will soon appear and bite those of you who got impatient, angry, and forgot the reasons you asterisked and or bought CUU in the first place. you heard it here.

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    1. I don't think today has much to do with the next few days but it's enough to stop selling and wait a bit to see if the buyer continues. If that happens then it's game on. The big buyer today is TD.

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  21. Wow, a whole lotta commenting from the stockhouse gang today. Yesterday when the sp bottomed people who sold made a good penny today. I didn't bother trading today, there was too much to do elsewhere and not enough sold. If we hit $1.10 tomorrow I'm going to jump back in. Tomorrow is the last time frame Elmer gave. That's a Friday but you never know. I would expect the BFS next week but I'm thinking it might be worth some risk to stay in over the weekend.

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