Thursday, November 29, 2012

Copper Fox Moves Forward

I had a brief correspondence with CUU. Let me clear the air. IR is in the dark just like the rest of us. IR is not in blackout, they are blacked out. This is an important distinction. I suggested people call IR for guidance only. All IR can offer at this point is experience. So I told people to call and ask for examples and personal opinions. NOT inside information. What Jason can supply is his opinion NOT trading advice. Another important distinction. I readily acknowledge that there are no exact comparisons. There simply has never been a deal like this before. This one will set an example.

Let me tell you what I do know.

Had the BFS came out right on time I would have been disappointed. The reality is that Teck engineers need to rake this over the coals. Our prepare rs and reviewers are all working together to shake this baby down because Teck wants a mine. If they didn't do this I would know they were not serious. Then I would have been really worried about my money. I in fact did start to sell and was going to go really negative and warn people off until I was able to gain enough confidence that this process was in fact happening.

I said the company needs to reword their standard line. I am right. They say "we are working on completing the BFS". Technically, this is true but it is misleading. The BFS is done. What they should be telling us is what processes are taking place now. We all know Teck has an interest by way of the option agreement. Why they leave it up to us to figure the status out is beyond most. For me, it is an intense puzzle. I like the razors edge. When I hit them with a hard curve ball it's because that is where the evidence is leading me. Equally, when I qualify something I come out with that promptly. I neither love nor hate the stock. I thrive on evidence and clues.

Lately people have talked up the idea of bombarding the co for answers. Well, I'm providing those tonight. I can say things that the co and IR can't. Why call the co if you doubt what you're being told? Call another geo ceo that you know and ask for an opinion. I do that regularly. Hey, is rock and roll you know. They are all intensely aware that they are in a battle for investor share and that means controlling head space too. You know this because you see their ads. By getting another's view and remembering it will be a bit biased, you can get a better understanding of where we are. But since I started this it seems fitting that I get those answers.

How long is too long? Yup, I told you this would wrap up next year. Boy did I take a beating on agora for it. Hmmm, was it worth it? Yup. We all need to square that with ourselves. Yes, I know people are being forced off their positions and man that sucks. I've drawn down huge myself. But we are here now and like it or not we might as well finish the game. So how much longer?

CUU has an obligation to us indeed. The furthest date I could council is Dec 20. Beyond that both CUU and Teck would be failing in their social obligation to us and probably run afoul of disclosure rules. I suspect the heat will really ramp up after the first week of Dec. I will not be surprised if someone lobs a legal grenade at the co. They will have grounds. Will those grounds bear out? I don't think so. I think the co can establish that they are doing everything they can to advance our cause. There's no point in rehashing the past failures. But in light of those, if you were Teck would you just accept the BFS? I say no bloody way.

I hold out hope for a resolution in early Dec and not the later date. I'd like to think I'm right but I don't know the full extent of how bad the last failure was. (None of that was on CUU).

There are a couple other things I'm working on. If I think they are accurate I'll blog it here.

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