Working on the final strokes of a master piece. So it comes down to a question of timing. There's an election going on in the USa, we have Nov11 and they have Nov 22 with closed markets. So is this the best week possible? I think it is. Will they make it? Meh, probably not. Today's volume shows nadda. The market shows no clue that it's coming. It leads me to believe that response to it will be slow. When it does come the market will open a sleepy eye and blink in disbelief that it's finally arrived. Then there will come the slow response.
At first there will probably be the round of fear mongering about the capex and how Teck will run for the hills but the retail will creep up. As the wave of BS subsides against the tide we should see the curve steepen. I'm not sure when the insiders will fire their canons. Do they try to jolt the public awake? Or do they creep with stealth waiting for the hebna to subside?
Will there be another massive sell off caused by the UAS election, BFS fear, more waiting before it comes etc? This is now at 50% probability. I think too much emphasis is going into the short term thinking but people are right to keep a wary eye on it. There are other implication. We are very close to tax time. Should this start looking like a deal after this year's deadline I suspect some tax loss selling to occur. I know some people that are talking about this conundrum right now. One guy has made $40k on Pilot Gold and now needs to weed out some weaker stocks to reduce his gains. That little bit of selling there was just a few people taking profits. So what to do?
If you made a lot on some of your stocks ie sold CP Rail for example (and you should in my opinion) you have room to reduce that by selling weaker stock, and ones your sure won't perform. If CUU is one of your dogs do you risk losing a big run up? It's better to pay tax than not to but most of us have a few risky stocks that just refuse to perform. And so, what to do. I've cleaned up my account except CUU. This year my capital gains are smaller and the risk of not catching the run outweigh the need to lighten up even more.
There's still time... um no. Not really. Some of us like to plan a long ways ahead. Also. We don't want to exceed the balance. If the share price dives and doesn't recover before the tax deadline? What if there's no exit before tax time? It's one thing to have a BFS but entirely another for a deal to be executed. Teck does have 120 days. My concern is they push this too close to tax time and a whole bunch of people sell on a steady basis heading into this resulting in a share price that never rises.
CUU has created the shell for the next round but may have nothing to transfer to it and CUU could stand still for months. They wanted to get going in Jan but they won't have any support from the CUU crowd and will have to rely on EE to fire up the engine. Perhaps this is why sentiment is heading south.
I don't like the implications surrounding the timeliness of the BFS release and the bigger picture. Ya, there is truth that this is totally undervalued but at the end of the day we are where we are. Are we in the right to call statements by the company into question? Yes. This will be about the 6th time we've been told to expect results. The last 5 times were miles off the mark. I'm going to stick my neck out one more time and say "yup, it's finally here". Notice I didn't say we'd see it?