Wednesday, November 14, 2012

CUU.v Flat trading just before BFS

The fake volume has vanished. The guys who were most of the volume for the last year have stopped the shell game. A look at the OBV (see definition below) shows the tug of war between buyers and sellers has stopped. Looking back several months you can see that the volume does not match the OBV. What this shows us is people being forced to sell bits at a time and during that time there's been a shell game going on.

On Balance Volume (OBV) measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days. OBV was developed by Joe Granville and introduced in his 1963 book, Granville's New Key to Stock Market Profits. It was one of the first indicators to measure positive and negative volume flow. Chartists can look for divergences between OBV and price to predict price movements or use OBV to confirm price trends.

The shell game has consisted of 250k worth of shares bought and sold between 4 accounts. Apparently these (this) account holder(s) has inside knowledge and or a very fast computer. All the cries that it's the market are pure bull. What this has done when combined with all the missed deadlines is to wipe out any interest in the deposit.

Discussions with the company lead us to believe they have the deal of the decade forming that will set a new standard in mining deals and environmentalism. Yet, not 1 person seems to be interested. I would think that even the daft would take notice. But, here we are again. No one is looking.

Just going by the old numbers and conservatively factoring in 2012 you could add another 500 million to the Capex and not budge the needle. The company has done little to nothing to get public attention as far as paid coverage goes. It's worth noting as said before that none of the coverage that comes from investment will happen because there has been no room for major investors including by way of PP. I have had some discussions with IR who said they have a plan. I would venture to say that the plan will only be set in motion after the BFS is published.

Returning to the trading. The idea that supporters are preparing for the publication and the Media plan is becoming more appealing. What else can explain where we are today. With talk shifting to 2013, an idea I was soundly rebuked for bringing up, it looks like the supporters are slowly coming to their senses.

Even if the BFS comes this week or next there is a strong possibility that no deal will come until well into 2013. There's also the real possibility that the naysayers are right and the BFS doesn't come until the second week in Jan. Yes, I've heard from sources and the grist mill that a meeting was held last Friday. Unfortunately, they would have had to publish the BFS by today if the final document was reviewed and persons associated were blacked out as a result. With holding material information beyond the contractual review time afforded Teck would not be legal. It's safe to conclude the document is not complete.  

There certainly is a chasm between the two schools of thought. It's done but we don't have it and the company is treading on thin ice by not meeting the timely disclosure requirements and the it's not done crowd who expect it much later. FYI, that group has held off just to give the benefit of the doubt that it will come out. But, I expect selling to begin since the trading indicates a complete lack of interest and there's been no word from the company. Not even an update. I think if it's going to be another Q they have to come out with it now. Take the lumps and recover.

What is the price of not telling us there's been another foul up? There won't be a recovery. It won't matter how good the BFS is, no one will touch it. Perhaps this is what the insiders want so they can clean up. BTW, this is one of the dominant arguments put forth by a small Chinese group of investors. They are waiting for the BFS but are content investing elsewhere in the mean time. They would not be surprised to see this get announced at the next AGM.

I wanted to try find out why the company is screwing the pooch but they are under the cloak of secrecy so legally they can't discuss it. We know why the initial delays hit but now we can't find out why they are continuing. When I heard that some details were being worked on I assumed that meant a meeting was held. But today, nothing to report.

I'm going to do 2 more posts on the co. The next one will be a summary of the positives and after that I'm going to present the entire argument from the negative side. (They don't think I give an equal representation of both sides lol).

This way people will have the full story from both sides of the coin. I hope the BFS comes before I finish. If time permits I might summarize these from the traders point of view. The two strategies are day and night different. If the trading remains flat and there's no sign of movement from the company I'll be issuing a warning to sell. This is because it would be a clear sing that the game is being rigged and there's an intention to drop the sp and keep it low right up to the time Teck opt. That would be a signal for a low price or perhaps the 40% Teck back in. Under those circumstances it will be years before you recover your money and that's not trading. Fine if you're buying for the mine but a disaster if you're trading. Don't get caught in that trap.   


  1. I've been in this stock for some time now...have never lost a moments sleep over it and have attempted regularly to accumulate and average down. Today is the first time I have started to get a sinking feeling in my gut...hopefully it's the flu ?

  2. Looks like we are going to blow through support while the company humps the pooch.

  3. It begs the question: what is really going on here. We've got nothing out of the office in the last few conversations with the boys there.

    AG lovefest for management aside, what do you really think is up with the whole situation?

    Would love to see some more broad market tankage. I am chasing some great alpha on divis.

  4. I'm not altogether sure about the 'warning' (Ag Forum). It may very well be someone who wanted to get in, in a big way, when the price was cheap, cheap, cheap. They saw their opportunity and took it. Or it could be a warning... I just want an end.

    On another note, BHR, impressive! Do you think there will be a pullback where I can get some more for less than today's SP? I have that transfer coming...if things don't go as planned with CUU over the next few days then I may go to BHR in a bigger way. I'd like to see the price chill a bit though. I tried to get in at 30 - 32 but ended up at 35 - 36. I sure don't want to pay 45 - unless of course you think it's going to fly...

    1. The odds on a BHR pull back are not so good. Next week might lead to more buying. But, it possible someone might let a few go but you'd have to call to see.

  5. Lucky for me I repurchased my shares that I sold the other day for $0.99 today ;) Siting pretty now, heheh!

  6. I heard a lot was accomplished Friday and things are set to go. Not holding any news back.

    1. It's a matter of perspective. Being close to done? I won't be shocked if it takes much much longer than anyone thinks. Sure CUU was at the CIM in Vancouver but how much do you think really got done. Monday we might learn something?