Lots of people wonder why the insiders are not taking their warrants and stuff. Why are they not buying at these low prices? Can they I ask? We know there's a mandatory formal request for the Liard shares etc which completes our ownership of the project. This is also the official start of the clock requiring Teck to make its option known. It also starts the 60 day clock for the Joint Venture agreement as per 15.1 of the contract.
What I think is coming is the attacks will continue so why rush to buy now. Why not start buying the day the NR comes out and join the momentum to try put the warrants in the money. Then execute those to. The idea is to push the price up so new support builds. If Teck is going to offer it will have to be above the 30 day high at a minimum. You have trade shows coming and what a better time to get in. This time they are going with info in hand and that's really a first. So they start the ball rolling and start buying. Not all at once but slowly. This builds retail confidence.
The sp must be sustained. I have a time frame of 34-36 days for a Teck offer. But, this could come before any attempt is made to bring the price up. It would not be smart to low ball but it doesn't have to be overly generous, simply a test of the resolve of the insiders. If it gets rejected then there's plenty of time to try again and see where they will soften.
Today people are closing trades and preparing to make TFSA transfers. A lot of the trading indicates that the volume is mostly a manipulation accompanied by people clearing for the year end. Nothing more. Should the NR come Monday or Tuesday we will see people caught off guard by it. There won't be a giant rally at the end of today like there should be. These are not normal times and this stock has had a very very long stretch of being punished by a few individuals.
On the bright side the real money is waiting for the signal to drive the price up. For starters, they know that an offer has to be real so the higher they drive it the better. Even 30% on a million is a lot of money. My concern is that the elevator is going to be very crowded. That makes for a premium just to get in. That is partially why the attack including false NR's have been used. These people want shares and will do anything to get them. They can afford the risk that it pancakes because the plus side is that rewarding.
I think people will accumulate next week in advance of IR's planned PR tour. At these prices there's little risk. If there's no NR Monday expect an attack. A big one. For that matter, take advantage of it. This is a time to have dry powder. Due to the number of shares down to 74 cents it's unlikely any free floater has enough fire power to drive it below that mark. That would probably force Ernesto to act too.
I do think the Request for Transfer will start the fire. In the big picture this strategy makes sense. The money people would know this too. They don't fire too soon. There's simply no need to. And, a lower price equals more shares. However, as we've seen, it doesn't take a lot of shares to drive the price up rapidly. Several recent events prove this is what's up.
More on the weekend.