Monday, December 24, 2012

Copper Fox Good info from the conference call

It's pretty clear that the stock came under a huge manipulation this morning. This does not change the fundamentals of the project. Elmer is elucidating the upside details right now.

It is possible for an outside company to make an offer now. They would have to wait for Teck to make its election or approve the offer. It is confirmed that Elmer was appointed to the Liard board for the purpose of handling offers.

The over all tone seems to indicate that Teck is taking us out and Elmer will be involved with negotiating a deal with a partner. We should have an answer in less than 2 months.

A note on the trading. Today may have been a manipulation by You will also notice they have the Penny Stock Journal logo on their blog. Any affiliation there? Before this started there was a lot of spamming of the PSJ on Agoracom. I suspect the usual suspects were behind it. But it looks like they failed big time. On our next trading day the insiders will be out of black out and ready to buy. It's interesting that on PSJ they claim affinity with Wolverton. Makes me wonder if there is a connection there too.

Given the need to push the price up to a respectable level it's pretty clear they will be buying. The base value calculations indicate that the share price should be $1.68. I won't be surprised to see it go over that. But, who can blame the insiders if they nibble away to take advantage of the low sp. I know we did.

Some of the other highlights:

This is a District not a deposit
Lots of ways for improve the optics of the BFS :
It would take a small amount of 340 mil generated by 75% backin to upgrade waste.
Potential of expansion east and north,
room for increased output potential
improve the recovery " 1% would make a huge difference"
improve timelines "faster construction and longer mine life" ( someone will be there for a very long time)
stronger and higher copper, gold and moly prices over time ( no one can explain why copper prices would drop )
room for tax reduction and breaks ( BFS is very conservative and does not represent accountants with pencil sharpeners
Laird shares will transfer
Tech will elect by April
Arizona is a wholly owned seperate entity
black out still on so there is more buying pressure on the side lines.

Max's Summary of the call:

Apologies if I cover points that have already been stated, but no problem re-enforcing all the pertinent points, all as I interpreted them:
BFS will be officially delivered to Teck by mid-January, 60 day JV and 120 day election clock start ticking
JV can only be requested via a previous election so that the JV agreement can be created based on the agreed election %
$3.25 Cu price used based on predicted increase in demand from China and India, not on what the curve predictors use ($2.50) as it doesn`t make sense. ES sounded pretty confident in this number.
ES has been blacked out for almost one year.
If 900 MM te moved from inferred to M&I then 19 year mine life of SC increased by another 21 years to 40 years, and that`s just based on what we know today.
BFS is on pit shell only, less than 1% of total area included in BFS
6 targets North...all not part of BFS
If Teck go with 75% back in then $340M available to move project enhancement forward (e.g. 10 DD programme to transfer shell pit `waste`` rock to measured). If Teck do not opt in then CUU will decide on what to do, most likely drill up and increase measured resource, re-do RE and make the whole prospect more attractive to potential suitors.
Drilling in North and South halted based on economics only, CUU had done all they need to for the BFS and proving up the potential of this district. The big boys can do the rest or go in a JV if they want help :)
EA, normally takes 1-2 years, CUU has been transparent with all relevant authorities since 2010, all questions on EA certificate application should already have been answered, CUU still in regular contact with issuing authorities.
My take on the call was that Mike & Elmer sounded happy if not slightly tired (well wouldn`t you be making sure a 5000 page BFS is done correctly). looking forward to see how the trading goes on the SP over the next few months.
Again, thanks to all who were on the call and forwarded information and their views today, glad I was off work today to listen in and buy some more.
A complete recording of today's conference call will be available within the next 24 hours by dialing 1-855-201-2300 and providing the conference reference number 864956 as well as the participant code 95993#. The recording will be available for 90 days. An MP3 recording of the call will also be posted on our website shortly.

Here's the new block model so you can see the inferred resource while you listen.

Click on a percentage in the above legend to enlarge or reduce this picture

1 comment:

  1. So the attack fizzled. They managed to knock off 20 cents but the rebound continues. On Thursday there should be a new round of insider buying. Since this is one of the most attacked stocks on the Jr Venture perhaps now the securities guys will investigate and appear to do their jobs?