Monday, February 4, 2013

Copper Fox Teck Decision in 30 Days?

BFS submitted
Teck's review to be completed by April
Financing period begins at the end of April
Long lead ordering to begin in June

Given that there are other things that require work the stated timelines indicate that the project is more advanced than is known. Part of the contract stipulates a JV has to be formed should Teck execute one of their back in options. The contract does stipulate 60 days after the BFS. However, it has been noted that the Liard royalty shares have not been transferred. This is a very important component to us.

Interestingly, the Economic Analysis was complete October 15, 2012! It is one of the last components of a BFS for obvious reasons. We also know Teck downloaded the database. This would have given them 4 months to come up with their own internal review.

As you read the document you will notice that a number of the items this author speculated about are true. At depth in certain locations we are seeing a big increase in the copper content. These specific locations are producing the mineral mix I said they would and if that continues to hold true this is going to be one hell of a deposit for decades to come.

A singular point to note. This deposit comes under 1 permit. One permit to rule them all as it were. That's a cost and time saver in was that are hard to understand for the layperson.

I can see why the negotiations have taken this long. The bare bones NR announcing a barely acceptable BFS pales in comparison to what's really there. I think CUU want's to drill. Ya, I know they keep saying they want to sell but I think we have a tougher negotiation without the assays. It's true that Teck has enough evidence to support a high price but you know my opinions on valuation.

Someone who shall not be named recently told me that Teck was buying us out and preparing to shelve the operation. They said price was a sticking point or this would already be a done deal. Once Teck owns it they can shelve it if the political scene is not suitable. The key is that they have to own it first.

If the political scene turns ugly and a deal is not struck then Teck has an uphill battle with Copper Fox. It's widely expected the NDP will take control and they will tax a number of mines out of business plus they intend to use environmental reviews to shut projects down. A quick survey of the headlines reveals what will come if they win. Considering that it's almost for certain this is coming I expect a deal will be struck shortly. Teck will have to fight for its portion. They will also have to take the political risk that comes with it too. Walking is not an option.

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Agora Hubs delete posts about NDP and Capex

There are hub leaders on agoracom who are clearly NDP supporters and they don't want you to read this.

There's a hub here that processes his own complaints. I take from the comments on my post that I should show what happened to capex's under the NDP?
What, did you think mining left BC just because of the park expansion? Really.
You are provoking me into detailing a case that you don't want to hear. You can delete this but I can just blog it and you won't be able to deny people the right to read facts.
The expanding regulation of economic activity, in health and safety, labour markets, and countless other sectors, is increasingly drawing the attention of economists, policymakers, and concerned citizens. The reason for this increasing attention is that regulations represent a cost to both individuals and businesses. Although there are many important areas affected by regulation, including transit, energy, and the operation of Crown Corporations, this study covers two of the more important areas of regulatory activity: labour and natural resources, specifically, forestry.
BC's Attempt at Reform
The NDP government of British Columbia announced a review of regulations in its 1998/99 budget. The Business Task Force on Regulatory Impact was formed and some areas of regulation are under review. The task force's mandate is to recommend ways to reduce the cost of doing business in British Columbia by streamlining regulations and eliminating red tape as well as devising institutional processes to prevent unnecessary regulation. The streamlining initiative, particularly, indicates that the provincial government has apparently taken the need for regulatory reform seriously.
In addition to creating the task force, the provincial government also passed the Regulatory Impact Statement Act (RISA) in 1999. Under RISA, government ministries and agencies must scrutinize proposed regulation based on an OECD checklist. Over time, RISA should lead to better and more carefully considered regulatory decisions. In addition, spurred by the task force, reviews of several existing areas of provincial regulation are now under way. Unfortunately, recent changes to labour laws indicate a weak commitment to these principles as most were ignored.
History shows us that exactly the opposite occured. Please notice the spike in regulation. Did you think that was free? No cost?
Regulatory Figure 2: Regulatory Complexity (1975-1998)
Regulatory Figure 3: Cost of Regulation in British Columbia for Select Years (Real 1993-94 Dollars)

Post script. They have not deleted it yet because they are reading it here and don't want to be shown to be complete idiots. Instead the post was cited and a warning was issued but they didn't give an explanation. As a hub leader I can read the complaints too. Gutless cowards. Provoke me to cite facts and then have a tantrum about it. Clearly NDP supporters. Typical NDP behavior too.